A new Exame/Ideia poll, released on Thursday (21), shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 44% of voting intentions. Bolsonaro has 33%, according to the survey. Both candidates oscillated within the margin of error, which is three percentage points higher or lower. Bolsonaro had a bigger drop in comparison with the last Exame/Ideia poll.
Ciro Gomes, from Democratic Labor Party (PDT, in Portuguese), has 8%; Simone Tebet, from Brazilian Democratic Movement(MDB, in Portuguese), 4%; André Janones (Avante) scored 2%. The other names tested scored 1% or below.
"We perceive a stable number of voting intentions. There is still no reflection of any impact resulting from the government's measures of aid payments or fuel price reductions. In other words, it is something that we need to monitor in public opinion in the upcoming months. It's worth remembering that the emergency aid took approximately two months to have a reflection on the president's popularity," explains Maurício Moura, founder of the Ideia research institute, in reference to the Aid Amendment approved last week.
Second round
In the second round, in a dispute between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula has 47% of voting intentions and Bolsonaro appears with 37%. In the historical series, the distance between the two has become greater, compared to the survey conducted a month ago.
The survey polled four other second-round scenarios and Lula would win all of them. Bolsonaro is first in the simulations with Tebet and Ciro, but the one with Ciro is within the margin of error and is therefore considered a virtual tie.
A total of 1,500 people were consulted between July 15 and 20. The interviews were conducted by telephone, with calls to both residential landlines and cell phones. The survey was registered at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-09608/2022.
PT and federation make Lula's candidacy official
Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now officially the candidate for President of the Republic for the PT (Workers' Party) and the federation Brazil of Hope, which the party integrates with the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB, in Portuguese) and PV (Green Party, in Portuguese). The slate formed with former governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) as vice-president was approved at the party and federation conventions on Thursday morning (21).
The events happened in sequence in a hotel in downtown São Paulo. Without the presence of Lula, who is fulfilling pre-campaign agendas in Pernambuco, the conventions had no political acts or public speeches.
Since the beginning of the year, Lula has been engaged in building a broad alliance to defeat Bolsonaro. One of the results of this negotiation was the surprising nomination of Alckmin.
Result of this effort, the coalition "Vamos junto(a)s pelo Brasil" (Let's Go Together for Brazil, in English) brings together seven legends so far, with Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), Rede and Solidariedade joining PT, PCdoB and PV. Together the parties elected 123 federal deputies in 2018, almost a quarter of the Chamber (24%). In comparison, in that election, the PT only got the support of PCdoB and PROS for the slate initially led by Lula, later replaced by Fernando Haddad.
Lula is now on his seventh presidential campaign and is seeking his third term in office, which would be an unprecedented achievement in the country. In 2018, Lula was leading the polls when he was arrested as a result of Operation Lava Jato, the result of illegal maneuvers by former judge Sergio Moro, who became Jair Bolsonaro's minister after the elections.
Imprisoned for 580 days, between April 7, 2018 and November 8, 2019, Lula never hid that he intended to run for the presidency of the Republic to prevent Bolsonaro's reelection and ensure the PT's return to the Palácio do Planalto six years after the coup against Dilma Rousseff.
Ciro makes his presidential candidacy through the PDT official
The PDT confirmed Ciro Gomes' presidential candidacy on Wednesday afternoon (20). The party's national convention took place in Brasília and was attended by the leadership and pre-candidates of the acronym throughout the country.
In his speech, Ciro strongly criticized the meeting with ambassadors promoted by the president on Monday to repeat lies about the electoral system. According to him, Bolsonaro called the "ambassadors of foreign powers and nations to skunk our country" and its' institutions.
Ciro highlighted some points of his plan, especially investment in science and education and industrial development with respect for the environment. On this topic, he spoke of transforming Petrobras into the largest national clean energy company, reversing privatizations and ending the policy of international oil price parity. Ciro also said he will revoke the debt ceileing, which he called "one of the most arbitrary and elitist measures ever adopted".
The candidate has also pledged to end the possibility of presidential reelection.
Do the C
Before Ciro, PDT leaders and pre-candidates for state governments spoke. The speeches praised the mobilization of the party, but also included demands for unity in support of Ciro's candidacy.
"I get indignant when I see a comrade of ours doing the L, why don't they do the C, for Ciro Gomes?", asked Miguelina Vecchio, national president of the Labor Women's Action and national vice-president of the legend. "Who doesn't like the C, don't let the door hit you on your way out," she concluded.
PDT pre-candidates for government in some states are trying to associate their names with Lula, like Senator Weverton Rocha (MA) and the former mayor of Niterói (RJ) Rodrigo Neves, and the former mayor of Natal (RN) Carlos Eduardo, pre-candidate for the Senate.
* originally reported by Igor Carvalho and newsroom
Edited by: Flávia Chacon
