A new FSB Pesquisa survey, by request of Banco BTG Pactual and published on Monday (15), shows former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) leading the electoral race for the Presidency of the Republic, with 45% of voting intentions. Next in line is President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), with 34%.
In relation to the same research company's study released last week, Lula grew by four percentage points. Bolsonaro, in turn, remained stable. The difference between the two main candidates for the Planalto Palace, therefore, rose from 7 to 11 percentage points in 7 days.
Lula is tied, within the margin of error, with the sum of all the other candidates (45% to 46%), which could guarantee his victory in the first round. The result is surprising, as it reverses the trend of Bolsonaro, who had been showing growth after the beginning of the "Kindness Package", with the payment of the R$ 600 Auxílio Brasil and other social benefits.
In the survey, former minister Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) was third, with 8% of voting intentions, followed by Senator Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), with 2%. The other candidates did not score.
In a decisive week, the former president increased his lead over Bolsonaro / Ricardo Stuckert
Second round
In an eventual second round of elections, Lula would beat all other candidates. The former president appears with 53%, while Bolsonaro gets 38%. If the dispute is with Ciro Gomes, Lula has 50% against 29% and with Simone Tebet, Lula would have 54% against 26% respectively.
The institute heard 2,000 voters by telephone between August 12 and 14, 2022. The margin of error is 2 percentage points higher or lower and the confidence index is 95%. The survey was registered at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-00603/2022.
Petrobras sells gasoline and diesel in Brazil at higher prices than those charged by importers / Carl de Souza / AFP
The price went down higher
Petrobras, whose board of directors is formed by executives appointed by Bolsonaro, has created a routine of frequent reductions in the price of its fuels with about two months to go until the presidential election.
In the last four weeks, there have been four drops - two for gasoline and two for diesel. All of them were small, below 5%, and do not reverse the price increases that have been in place since the beginning of the year.
They came after sporadic and relevant fuel price increases announced during the first six months of the year. Diesel, for example, went up four times in 2022. In March, it was readjusted by Petrobras by almost 25%, generating revolt from truck drivers, a category that campaigned for the election of Bolsonaro in 2018.
Petrobras Prices in 2022
Diesel
01/Jan - R$ 3.34
12/Jan - R$ 3.61 (increase of 8.08%)
11/Mar - R$ 4.51 (increase of 24.93%)
10/May - R$ 4.91 (increase of 8.86%)
18/Jun - R$ 5.61 (increase 14.25%)
05/Aug - R$ 5.41 (decrease of 3.56%)
12/Aug - R$ 5,19 (decrease of 4,06%)
Gasoline
01/Jan - R$ 3.09
Jan/12 - R$ 3.25 (increase of 5.17%)
11/Mar - R$ 3.86 (increase of 18.76%)
18/Jun - R$ 4.06 (increase of 5.18%)
20/Jul - R$ 3.86 (decrease of 4.92%)
Jul/29 - R$ 3.71 (decrease of 3.88%)
:: Banks, industry, and agribusiness sectors drive away from Bolsonaro before the elections ::
The consecutive drops about two months before the election drew the attention of the Only Petroleum Workers Federation (FUP), which has always criticized Bolsonaro for keeping Petrobras prices tied to the international market and allow the company to practically triple the value of diesel produced in the country during his government.
According to the entity's general coordinator, Deyvid Bacelar, two months before the vote, the state-owned company began to meet an electoral agenda of the president.
"Who determines the fuel price policy is no longer the PPI [import price parity], but Bolsonaro's electoral policy," he said. "The government will try, until the elections, to announce consecutive reductions in fuel prices, in an attempt to minimize the damage caused to the economy and the population by the 193.1% readjustment in diesel accumulated in this administration."
Edited by: Flávia Chacon
