Lula increases lead and has an advantage of 30 percentage points among Brazil Aid recipients

According to the most recent Quaest/Genial poll, released this Wednesday morning (August 17), former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) increased his voting intention percentage, between July and August, among voters who receive Auxílio Brasil (Brazil Aid), an aid paid by the federal government.

The leftist candidate jumped from 52% to 57% in 15 days. Meanwhile, the preference for the current president among the abovementioned group dwindled from 29% to 27% - a variation within the margin of error limit – with the same comparison base. Therefore, among Brazil Aid recipients, the difference between the two candidates reached 30 percentage points. 

Voting intention for president | First round | Stimulated survey | Brazil Aid

Brazil Aid recipients | Brazil Aid non-recipient

Vote intention in the first round of Brazil’s 2022 presidential elections among Brazil Aid recipients. NBN: People who won’t vote/Undecided on who to vote for / Reproduction

Quaest's director, political scientist Felipe Nunes, posted on Twitter an analysis that shows that 6 out of 10 voters do not view the government's economic measures as intended to help the population, but to ensure the current president's reelection. 

The government’s economic measures intended to…

Help to reelect Bolsonaro / Support people / NS/NR: Don’t know/ Didn’t answer. The question above is part of the Quaest survey and gives information about the population's reaction to the Bolsonaro government's payment of Brazil Aid / Reproduction

Read below the analysis:

1/ A Genial/Quaest national survey was published today showing that the beginning of the payment of benefits by the federal government, including Brazil Aid, has not changed the difference between Lula (45%) and Bolsonaro (33%), which remains at 12 percentage points.

First round

The survey shows that Lula still holds a comfortable lead in the presidential race, with 45% of voter support. He is followed by President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), with 33%.

Compared to another Quaest poll released 15 days ago, the two main presidential candidates have fluctuated one percentage point (plus). 

First Round | Quaest/Genial Investimentos

Stimulated voting intention scenario for the presidency (%)

The poll was ordered by Genial Investments to Quaest and was registered in the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court under the number 01167/2022. Quaest interviewed 2,000 voters face-to-face between August 11 and 14 in 123 cities and towns located in the 27 Brazilian federal units. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Since Lula surpasses the sum of all the other candidates (45%, while the other candidates have, together, 42% of voter support), he would win the elections in the first round, according to the survey.

Former Minister Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) is in third place, with 6% of voter support. He is followed by Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), with 3%. The total percentage of voters who do not know who to vote for is 6%. What is called in Brazil “white vote” (voting for none of the listed candidates) and “null vote” (voting for a random number not listed) amounts to 6%. 

In an eventual second round against Bolsonaro, which can only happen if Brazil’s current president increases his percentage of voter support during the first round, Lula would have 51%; Bolsonaro would have 38%.

The poll was ordered by Genial Investments to Quaest and was registered in the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court under the number 01167/2022. Quaest interviewed 2,000 voters face-to-face between August 11 and 14 in 123 cities and towns located in the 27 Brazilian federal units. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. 

Edited by: Flávia Chacon e Vivian Virissimo