With signs given by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) and his allies, the federal government took advantage of the short week of the Corpus Christi holiday to reposition the approach with the Parliament. Lula approached the political articulation and now moves to gather support through the first ministerial exchanges of the current term, which should be announced in the coming days.
If there were already signs that the National Congress would not allow an easy life for the workers' party government, the imbroglio became more evident on May 31st. A few hours before the end of its validity, the Chamber of Deputies would finally approve the Provisional Measure that reorganized the federal administration with a total of 37 ministries.
The decision was considered simple and elementary, but it became a bittersweet victory for the concessions made, considering the dehydration of some key ministries and the release of R$ 1.7 billion (approximately US$ 350.4 million) in parliamentary amendments the day before. Encouraged by the numerous Agricultural Parliamentary Front, the opponents also opened real trenches to oppose the projects of environment preservation and the rights of the original peoples.
To the press, the opposition claims there are some "political articulation problems" and do not hide their dissatisfaction with the actions of ministers Alexandre Padilha [Institutional Relations] and Rui Costa [executive office of the President of Brazil]. For politicians allied with the government, the intention is to force a so-called "retail policy", to the liking of the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (Progressive Party), seeking to negotiate the approval of projects vote by vote, including the release of parliamentary amendments, increasing the Legislative Branch's power.
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It is expected that a change of ministers, following the suggestions of some leaders, will have positive effects for the consolidation of a permanent majority, at least, for the most crucial votes for the government in themes such as economy and social policies. However, for sociologist Joyce Luz, a professor at the São Paulo School of Political Sociology Foundation, the problem resides in the current post-Bolsonaro situation.
"If we considered that the Social Democratic Party and the União Brasil Party are part of the coalition, because each one has 3 ministries, the base would be solid. It turns out that even so these parties declared themselves independent, they said that they would not necessarily vote with the government just because they had positions granted by the government. Then came the negotiation of resources, because we would see a congress that spent the last 4 years negotiating agendas vote by vote and got used to receiving resources in exchange", she points out.
The same phenomenon is pointed out by federal deputy Túlio Gadêlha (Rede Party), who highlights the much more purposeful character of the current Executive Branch. "The political vacuum left by the Bolsonaro government allowed the centrão to impose the secret budget, almost R$ 20 billion (approximately US$ 4.12 billion) per year in RP9 amendments [secret budget]. And all this laxity due to the absence of public policies, it does not exist in this government", he says.
The congressman listed some social programs on the horizon that require attention and budget, such as Minha Casa Minha Vida (a program designed to grant popular housing to low-income population), the expansion of universities with an increase in the number of scholarship holders and the Bolsa Família that begins to distribute more than R$50 (approximately US$10) per child. "Therefore, it seems that Congress will always be dissatisfied, because there was no 'weaning' process of the RP9 amendments. But this is a reflection exercise that we seek to do with President Lula, not to set a budget for parliamentarians, but to build a closer dialogue with this base that we believe can be a hard core for the approval of projects", he defends.
'Semi-parliamentary system' inherited and difficult to reverse
The secret budget, which was normalized and expanded in the past government, under Lira's architecture, was vetoed by the STF (Federal Supreme Court) in December 2022, considering it unconstitutional and not very transparent.
This amount of almost R$20 billion (about US$4.1 billion) annually from the Union continued to reach the same recipients through two new modalities. One of them was individual amendments, which shared R$9.8 billion (approximately US$2 billion) equally among all congressmen, and which presupposes greater transparency regarding the allocation of resources. Another part, however, started to advance in a less controlled way through another item, RP2, used in the allocation of ministries' funds and which also does not excel in transparency.
Questioned by the press on the subject at the Planalto Palace, on the 5th, Senator Jaques Wagner (Workers' Party) sees a threat to the current political system itself.
"If that's the case, we have no limits. Then it's better to have the courage to go for parliamentary system. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. But if Congress is to manage all the State's investment capacity, then it has to be a parliamentary government, and that is not the case in presidentialism... when you do something you have to do it completely", he ironized.
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In order to try to establish a more harmonious climate with the power responsible for the country's legislation, Lula has assumed a closer relationship with party leaders and even met with Lira on the 5th. Responsible for setting the pace of agendas that enter the House, the deputy from the state of Alagoas will be the thermometer for the efficiency of an awaited ministerial redesign.
It is possible that, in the coming days, the Minister of Tourism, Daniela Carneiro, and the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho, two ministers linked to União Brasil Party, will be replaced by other names required for a more effective adhesion of the party to the government.
Supporters of Lula, like Wagner, do not deny the possibility of exchanges motivated by "performance or political rupture". "No one who is a minister is just a technician, everyone is a technician and a politician. So, performance occurs in two senses: the first is to deliver what the Ministry demands and the second is to deliver a political relationship", said the former governor of the state of Bahia.
For Joyce Luz, it is necessary to consider the consolidation of the influence of other names from União Brasil Party, such as Senator Davi Alcolumbre and Deputy Elmar Nascimento, in case names linked to them assume ministries. "You need to see if these changes will please Arthur Lira, right? If they don't, then it gets a little complicated for him, because he was the one who stopped the entire congressional agenda, imposed the defeats on the government. If now he does not accept this dialogue, the proposals that Lula will make to the Chamber, above all, it will be difficult for him to maintain his project of going from vote to vote", she says.
Environmental agenda cannot be a bargaining chip
Another important battlefront for the Workers' Party government is that of agribusiness, an important sector of the Brazilian economy dominated by the opposition. On June 6, Lula participated in the opening of the Bahia Farm Show, one of the largest fairs in the sector, and preached reconciliation between small and large farmers.
The president tries to put out the fire created by the more conservative wing of agro, which has imposed successive and symbolic defeats, such as, for example, the lightning approval of Bill 490, which admits the Time Frame thesis. However, other defeats have greater potential to upset the government's more left-wing coalition, such as the withdrawal of some expensive attributions to the Ministries of the Environment, by Marina Silva, and of the Indigenous Peoples, by Sônia Guajajara.
For Gadêlha, some accommodations will be easily made thanks to the good relationship maintained with those responsible for where the demarcation of indigenous lands was destined, for example, which in this case is Minister Flávio Dino. He also envisages solutions for a more productive dialogue with the ruralists.
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"The president has been signaling, he has participated in events, he has been trying to build a dialogue with this group, but we know what their guidelines are and how much they harm the environment. But there is a thinking core among the agro parliamentarians, this is the one we want to dialogue with and empower in parliament, which is the core that sees the environment and all ecosystems as fundamental so that we can continue with the agro activity in a conscious way ", he informs.
The political scientist, on the other hand, sees a certain similarity in the crossroads that Lula got into with Marina Silva during his second term and that continues to be his Achilles heel along with different currents on the left-wing and center-left-wing.
"Agribusiness has a fundamental weight in the economy and will apply pressure to get all the guidelines that are in its interest approved. At the same time, as we know, it was already a cause for noise, Lula has two ministers who are very tough on the guidelines for preserving the environment and agribusiness itself. This for me is the most difficult dilemma to solve, because Lula will not be able to govern without agribusiness", she concludes.
Edited by: Thalita Pires e Flávia Chacon
