Last week, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travelled to the Caribbean to participate in two important regional events. Besides official speeches, the Brazilian head of state used these trips to get closer to countries Brazil has put aside in recent years.
His first stop was Guyana. Lula spoke at the closing ceremony of the 46th Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community, also known as Caricom. Lula met the Guyanese president, Irfaan Ali. During a speech after the meeting, the two leaders talked about closing ties and establishing cooperation in strategic areas.
Guyana’s skyrocketing growth is one of the reasons for the rapprochement. In 2020, the country recorded a GDP of US$ 5.5 billion. Three years later, Guyana ended 2023 with a GDP of US$ 16.3 billion. For 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the country will reach US$ 27.9 billion in a year. These perspectives have increased due to the discovery of oil reserves in Guyana in recent years.
With this, the Brazilian government began to project a closer commercial relationship with the neighbor from the north. According to Denilde Oliveira, professor of Foreign Affairs at the Higher School of Advertising and Marketing (ESPM), Guyana’s exponential economic growth opens the possibility of business for Brazilian industries.
“If we consider Guyana’s skyrocketing growth, there will be more consumption. Guyana is also close to a region of industrialization – Manaus – which allows the export of industrial products. It also opens possibilities to Caricom’s economies which, despite being smaller, have the potential for expanding considering the history of Brazilian exports to these countries, which end up having a higher added value. But there are also service areas and other possibilities," he told Brasil de Fato.
According to her, Brazil also looks at these ties from a strategic point of view, since the region already has partnerships with European countries, the US and China. “It’s natural that Brazil places itself as a country that may be a partner – and being territorially close makes the process easier,” said Oliveira.
One of the topics the two presidents talked about was cooperation on infrastructure focused on territorial integration between the two countries.
Today, the main road connecting Brazil and Guyana is that between Boa Vista (Roraima’s capital city) and the port of Georgetown, the Guyanese capital. However, a big part of this road is still to be paved. To Denilde Oliveira, the rapprochement between the countries, at this time, could bring prospects for projects that expand integration.
“Brazil has a strong relationship with South American countries and has been amplifying integration in infrastructure – and there is a lack of it in northern Brazil. So, it’s needed to include in foreign policy this physical integration by carrying out infrastructure projects. That places Brazil as a country that reaffirms its leadership and resumes some actions of cooperation in South America even with smaller partners. That’s a conquest of possibilities for foreign policy,” she says.
Roberto Goulart Menezes, a professor of Foreign Affairs at the University of Brasília (UnB, in Portuguese) warns that, despite Guyana's projected GDP growth, the country's oil is extracted by US companies.
"Guyana is growing rapidly. But this discovery was made by Exxon Mobil. Therefore, we need to know how this extracted wealth is going to be distributed. If these US companies extract it like any other commodity, they will take all this wealth away. So, Guyana will have nominal GDP and a very high per capita income, but that won't translate into well-being for the population," Menezes told Brasil de Fato.
Afterwards, Lula went to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines to give a speech at the opening of the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac). On that occasion, he met with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
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In both events, Lula restated one of his biggest goals during his third presidential term: resume Brazil’s leadership in the region.
He also talked about the importance of regional integration, said it’s important to debate about global governance reform and approached topics such as combating hunger and poverty.
To Menezes, this rapprochement with Caribbean countries had a positive outcome for the government, not only from the perspective of economic integration but also considering the political articulation with these countries in international bodies.
“Since 2023, Brazil has been rebuilding its foreign policy. By visiting Guyana, President Lula seeks to contribute to boosting political integration between the many countries in the region. Lula’s presence in the Caribbean presented Brazil's message while in the presidency of the financial G20. Celac is, above all, a political forum because it doesn’t have the US. Therefore, it can coordinate positions in multilateral organizations, how they will vote in the UN, World Bank, World Trade Organization,” said Menezes.
According to Reginaldo Gomes, a professor of history at the Federal University of Roraima, the talks between Brazil and the Caribbean have always been distant, despite being positive ones. An example of this is the relationship between Guyana and Brazil. Gomes says this exchange has always been mainly based in consulates.
“Paradiplomacy [foreign affairs led by cities and states] is what favored us [Brazil], through discussion forums among Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela, and meetings with businesspeople. Here at the border, we have Brazilian consulates whose consuls negotiate these issues without Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs participating in them,” he says.
The researcher assesses Lula’s presence in the region as important because it shows that Brazil, although not having a historic presence in the Caribbean, is worried about the region’s future.
Mediation of the Essequibo dispute
During the trip, Lula was expected to talk to Irfaan Ali and Maduro about the dispute over Essequibo. Brazil's position as a regional mediator was one of the president's goals during the trip. Brasilia has already hosted talks between representatives of Guyana and Venezuela, and Celso Amorim accompanied the dialog between the heads of state in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. But Lula's direct participation was still lacking.
Lula's only mention of the conflict came alongside Irfaan Ali. The Brazilian president said he would personally thank the Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Ralph Gonsalves, for taking part in the talks between Venezuela and Guyana over the dispute over Essequibo.
According to Denilde Oliveira, the lack of statements from Lula shows that the matter is still far from closed.
“Even Lula’s participation has not yet gained enough relevance to reach some agreement on the dispute. That’s a doubt about the Brazilian government's approach to the matter as a whole: how Brazil will effectively balance interests. That balance has not yet been reached, and that's where foreign policy still has some points, but there is international recognition that Brazil is capable of exercising that leadership. At the same time as we haven't seen results, there are still doubts because Brazil's position in relation to Maduro has been ambiguous," he said.
In December 2023, Venezuelans approved a government referendum that asked whether they agree with Caracas' decisions on how to deal with the territorial dispute.
With 160,000 km² and around 120,000 inhabitants, the Essequibo territory is on the border between Venezuela and Guyana, and has been disputed since the 19th century. However, friction between Caracas and Georgetown over control of the region escalated after the discovery of large oil reserves off the Essequibo coast.
Edited by: Rodrigo Durão Coelho
