Despite the strong influence that the United States still has on the international scene, the effect of the presidential elections between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in Brazil is more related to domestic politics. Analysts interviewed by Brasil de Fato point out that the return of the far-right to the US government would favor coup projects, such as Bolsonaro, which is currently in the sights of the Supreme Court.
They say that a possible victory for Donald Trump could facilitate amnesty for the coup plotters of January 8, 2023, who reproduced in Brasilia the coup attempt by Trump's electorate with the invasion of the Capitol in Washington after the Republican's defeat by Joe Biden in 2020.
"The developments in the US elections have resonated in Brazilian domestic politics, given the connections between the Trumpist right and the so-called extreme right in Brazil," says Layla Dawood, professor of International Relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ, in Portuguese).
For James Green, professor of Modern Latin American History and Brazilian History and Culture at Brown University, the Republican candidate's victory reinforces the ties that the Bolsonaro administration and the Brazilian far right have with the Trumpist movement in the US.
"It should increase pressure against measures to punish the insurrectionists in the Praça dos Três Poderes on January 8 and forge closer alliances with the religious evangelical movement, the far right, and the forces of the Republican Party controlled by Trump as IPaC is other forces is in Brazil." [IPaC – The US Israel Public Affairs Committee: a pro-Israel lobbying group that advocates its policies to the legislative and executive branches of the United States].
Green recalls that Joe Biden's administration stopped Bolsonaro's initiative to discredit the Brazilian elections in 2022 during a meeting with ambassadors – an event that would later make him ineligible. "The Biden administration was essential with a clear position in favor of Brazilian democracy and against any attempt to question the electoral results and the electronic ballot boxes."
An important link between Donald Trump and Bolsonaro, Steve Bannon, former advisor to the Republican candidate, was released from prison on Tuesday (29) after spending almost four months in detention. "I'm not broken; I'm empowered," Bannon, 70, told The New York Times as he left a federal prison in Connecticut.
Bannon was convicted of defying a subpoena to testify to the congressional panel investigating the January 6, 2021, attack by Trump supporters on Capitol Hill and released a week before the US presidential election. Trump granted Bannon a general pardon before leaving office, which caused the charges against him to be dropped. Others accused in this case were found guilty.
The far-right political strategist played an essential role in Trump's 2016 campaign, which led him to the presidency. He then worked as the White House's chief strategist, a position he left after seven months, allegedly due to conflicts with other officials. Although he no longer officially works for the former president, he has continued to use his influence to get Trump back into the White House, mainly through his podcast, "The War Room."
Bilateralism
Green says a possible election of Kamala Harris should follow this line of guaranteeing the maintenance of Brazilian democracy and repudiating new coup attempts by the Bolsonaro family but with a "complex and contradictory relationship" between Brazil and the United States on other issues.
"Kamala Harris' administration will follow this line, but there are still disagreements on various geopolitical issues between the two countries. However, with more dialogue, there is a greater possibility of finding common ground between the two countries," he says.
Layla Dawood points out that Brazil, like the entire Latin American region, has not been a priority in US foreign and defense policy. In this sense, she believes that the victory of the Republican or Democratic ticket should not have significant repercussions for bilateral relations between the US and Brazil in the short term.
On the other hand, Dawood points out that the new US presidency will have to deal with significant global challenges, such as escalating tensions in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and China's economic and military rise. In the face of these, "Brazil is not completely aligned with US interests."
"China is an important trading partner for Brazil, and China and Russia are Brazil's partners in BRICS. In the coming years, we must observe the pressures that will be put on Brazil by the new US administration so that we adopt a position closer to US interests."
*With AFP
