Iran's subsequent retaliation against Israel will not be stopped if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. This is what Hamidreza Gholamzadeh of the Iranian Think Tank House of Diplomacy said in an exclusive interview with Brasil de Fato in Tehran, the capital of Iran.
Gholamzadeh explains that Iran's primary objective since the beginning of the current phase of the genocide of the Palestinian population has always been to force a ceasefire. But after Israel's latest attacks on Iran, in which four Iranian soldiers were killed, Iran's responses – which could happen at any time – will be a "punishment" for Israel for having threatened Iran's integrity and security.
Gholamzadeh, who is also Secretary General of the Asian Mayors Forum, does not believe that diplomatic efforts with Israel or international bodies such as the UN Security Council will succeed in obtaining a ceasefire from Israel. "The only language they understand will be that of a strong command," says the Iranian expert.
The interview was conducted during the vote count in the US presidential election. Iran does not hope for a change in relations with the United States. According to the intellectual, one possibility would be the dialogue initiative that Obama initiated in 2009, but whose willingness to resume or maintain positions and measures (such as sanctions) against Iran was quickly abandoned.
One of the main objectives of the United States is to stop the development of Iran's nuclear program. Iran, for its part, claims that its nuclear industry is developed only for peaceful purposes.
Brasil de Fato: After more than one year of attacks in Gaza, Israel not only is not attending to the massive claims for a ceasefire but is even expanding its war, now to Lebanon. Iran has been supporting Palestinians and has been attacked as well. What is the Iranian strategy regarding Palestine?
Hamidreza Gholamzadeh: Iran has been supportive of the Palestinians, not only since the revolution in Iran but also before. After the revolution, it was put into the Constitution, and it was turned into a fundamental policy of the Islamic Republic to support the Palestinians and to be against the Israeli regime. This support has been for so long, and for the past year, we have been witnessing this genocide in Gaza and, after that, the current massacre in Lebanon.
From the early days, after October 7 last year, Iranians said that this war needed to be ended and that Iran was supporting the Palestinians. The whole resistance network in the region is trying to stop this war or at least reduce the tension by engaging in some conflict with the Israeli regime to prevent them from attacking more massively against Gaza.
With that approach, we tried to help the Palestinians, and gradually, we came forward. Then, they started the conflict between the Israeli regime and Iran. You can remember that in April, they actually attacked our consular section in Damascus [Syria's capital], and then we retaliated with some missile attacks; then we had some other assassinations. Finally, [we had] the assassination of Mr. [Ismail] Haniya, inside Teheran, on the very day of the inauguration of the new President [Masoud Pezeshkian].
After a while, Iran was hopeful, based on comments from other Western countries, that there might be some ceasefire in Gaza. And because of that, Iran decided to halt any retaliation at that time after the assassination of Mr. Haniya. Because for the Iranians the ceasefire and stopping the killing of the people in Gaza was the most important thing. And the whole history of this past year, the whole support was for this cause: to help the Palestinians and to stop this war machine in Gaza.
Unfortunately, after nearly two months, not only did the ceasefire not happen, but also the Israelis attacked others and killed many commanders of Hezbollah in Lebanon. They had those terrible pager attacks against many civilians in Lebanon, and they assassinated Sir Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, including a high-ranking IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] commander there with him.
After that, Iran started to retaliate again. We had that missile attack. Again, the Israelites did attack Iran. It was crossing a terrible redline, which they did. Now, after the attack that Israelis carried out against Teheran, it is not just about Gaza; it is Gaza and Iran. There are two points right now: we need to stop the attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, but also we need to redesign the balance of power in this region. And Iran needs to defend its integrity and security.
Because of that, it is not just an attack on the ceasefire. A ceasefire is not going to halt any Iranian retaliation anymore. Ceasefire is good, and it's a necessity, it's a must. But what Iran is considering right now is that it needs to respond. First of all, if the ceasefire does not happen – which has not happened so far –Iran needs to force the Israelis to stop that. We have seen for the past year, more than a year, that the only thing that they understand is a forceful command. If there's no force, democratically or diplomatically, such things are not something that works for the Israeli regime to stop their massacres and cleanse the people and genocidal attacks that they are carrying out in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran says that we need to respond massively and powerfully, first to stop the war in Gaza, second to protect our security and integrity, and to retaliate against this violation of our integrity that happened by the Israelis.
The retaliation hasn't happened yet; maybe by then, a ceasefire might happen. If it happens, as I said, it would not stop the retaliation, but it might reduce the scale and the dimension of the attack that might happen by the Iranian side. But, as I said, Iran sees these operations as something to support the Palestinians to stop this war. And has realized that this cannot happen by relying upon the United Nations or its Security Council or negotiating with the Westerns and the Americans. So it's not working like that. We have experienced that. There's no hope in the next American administration, for example, or the Europeans or the US Security Council. The only thing that can solve this is to have a strong language with them.
According to Iranian government officials, this third retaliation will be indeed stronger. Some Western media speculated that the attacks could have taken place before the US Presidential elections (something that didn't happen). What should we expect regarding Iran's next retaliation?
The rumors and reports that appear in media, especially in Western Media, are saying that there might be some attacks from other countries in the region, like Iraq, for example, or Syria or Lebanon. I'm not saying that it is true. I have no news about that. But it is likely. Iran needs to send a strong message to the Israeli regime about what it did. And it needs to be a punishment. Not just a message. It needs to be a strong punishment as well. We differentiated between the first operation and the second operation missile attack that we had. The first was just a signal that we could pass through the different systems of the Israelis, Americans, and the other allies. The second one was to hit some targets and have some impact on the grounds in the occupied lands. It was very different in terms of scale. I expect the third one to be even larger than the past two. This means it needs to have some casualties, intense casualties, especially in terms of facilities or infrastructure, not necessarily people – especially if they are so-called civilians–. That is my expectation.
They need to feel that, if this is going to continue, if this exchange of attacks is going to continue, then it will turn into an existential war for the Israelis. They need to understand this upcoming response that Iran is going to send. It needs to be strong. I cannot say for sure what type it would be. But I think there are many options on the ground, on the table. Because Iran has many offensive capabilities that have not yet been unveiled, the types of missiles, drones, or other weapons that they have would be used, I think, to some extent in the next one. And according to the statements by officials, it will be a massive surprise for the Americans and the Israelis.
A billboard in Tehran denouncing US arms financing for Israel. In the image, an Israeli soldier is armed and dressed by US politicians / Mauro Ramos
Votes are being counted at this very moment in the United States, with a significant probability of winning for Trump. In this scenario, what is Iran expecting for the next few years, considering that Trump himself was the one responsible for the murder of General Qasem Soleimani?
The assassination of General Soleimani was a colossal mistake. It ruined every chance to improve ties between the two countries. But regardless of that, the main problem is the wrong approach that Americans still have. Their attitude toward American exceptionalism and the idea that they are still a superpower—which they are not anymore—are destroying any positive communication between the two countries.
Iran is a growing country and is becoming more powerful, just like many other countries: Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa, and India. Many other countries are gaining some significance in the world. However, the Americans and Western Europeans do not want to believe that the world has changed. They are still reluctant to believe that. They are still resisting the fact that the world has changed and that power has shifted from the Cold War to the bipolar world and, after that, the unipolar world to many places. And it's not working like in the past. So, the Americans are not the rulers of the world. They are not the superpower anymore. But they are still adhering to the old habits. And they want to talk to Iran from a higher position, and Iran is not accepting that.
Iran is now a world player, a global player, and a regional power, and it has gained some momentum in this region. Therefore, you cannot work in this region without Iran's participation or involvement. With such a country, you cannot work like that. Iran in 2024 is not Iran in 1970'sthe 1970s when Sha [Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last monarch of Iran] was ruling, and he was actually a puppet government for the Americans.
Since the wrong mindset is in place among the Americans, there is no ground for improvement of ties. The only way to improve this relationship is to change their attitude towards Iran. This happened in the early years of President Obama. He sent a letter to the Iranian leader saying, 'We are not after regime change anymore; we accept the Iranian right to nuclear power, peaceful nuclear facilities,' and several other things. And he said, 'We want to improve our relationship with Iran.' It was the letter that President Obama sent to the supreme leader of Iran [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei].
If you remember the 2009 election, unrest erupted in Iran. As soon as they saw that unrest, they changed everything. So, the same person who just 2 or 3 months before the election had sent that letter changed their attitude again. It was a reset and, again, adhering to regime change policies to change the government inside Iran. They supported the protests and the unrest, and we had further sanctions. Again, the same old story and the same actual guidebook came on the table. They followed the same agenda, and you see the results: it was very useless, and it was destructive of the positive policing approach to work with Iran.
If this is not changed, no real change will happen. We might have some negotiations or something like the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action], which I doubt would happen anymore. Still, even if those happen, that would be very interim and very short, just like in the Obama administration. He signed the JCPOA, which was his own initiative, but he didn't implement it completely. The first killer of the JCPOA was Obama himself, not President Trump. He did not remove the sanctions or fulfill the comments and commitments they had made in the deal. So, even if that happens again, there is no positive ground for further improvement of relations.
Edited by: Dayze Rocha
