Last week, Donald Trump's administration sent Richard Grenell to a private meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to discuss a solution for Venezuelan deportees in the United States. In an interview on Tuesday (4) with a US TV channel, the American special envoy said that, in addition to agreeing to receive the deportees, Caracas had agreed to send commercial planes to pick up Venezuelans.
The agreement between the two countries also involved the release of six US citizens arrested on Venezuelan territory for taking part in plans to kill both the president and the vice president, Delcy Rodriguez. In a statement, the Venezuelan government said that the two sides had committed to a “zero agenda” for bilateral relations.
According to analysts Brasil de Fato interviewed, the resumption of relations between Washington and Caracas is possible, but it depends on the willingness of the US to do so. Former ambassador and member of the National Assembly, Ilenia Medina, says there is a possibility that this “zero agenda” will include tightening sanctions, especially those related to the oil sector.
For her, this move does not mean the White House will propose resuming diplomatic relations between the two countries.
“It can happen because Trump is sending mixed signals. He knows he has a major difficulty, which is the energy issue. He's going to have to work hard to resolve the oil issue. Furthermore, he wanted to portray himself as a leader by making threats. However, he faces opposition from Latinos, and [Gustavo] Petro [Colombian president] himself has already made clear his stance in this regard,” he told Brasil de Fato.
During his first term, Trump increased sanctions against the Venezuelan economy. In 2017, the Republican politician began to apply tougher blockade against the oil sector and prevented Caracas from selling oil on the international market.
Two years later, the White House did not recognize Maduro's electoral victory for a second presidential term and handed over the administration of Venezuelan assets in the US to former deputy Juan Guaidó, who had proclaimed himself Venezuelan president, even though he had not taken part in the presidential elections. For Reinaldo Tamaris, professor of Political Economy at the Bolivarian University of Venezuela, the current negotiation points out a change in the White House's stance towards Venezuela, since it is a way of recognizing the Maduro government.
U.S. policy has always been characterized by pressure, both diplomatically and medialy. This is a legacy of Henry Kissinger [former US Secretary of State] and is rooted in American pragmatism. Despite saying they don't recognize Maduro, their actions say otherwise,” he said. Trump will always play the role of a villain in public opinion, so he appears as the one who forces others.
Medina agrees with this understanding of Trump’s actions. For her, Trump's first move is to recognize Maduro's government, but Washington's measures after that are unpredictable.
“Trump recognized someone like Guaidó who couldn't even be elected to parliament. On this basis, he took illegal measures and the Venezuelan government managed to overcome the US -imposed economic difficulties. After building a series of tools to continue resisting, Maduro can act in the same way, which in itself sets other conditions for the White House. But Trump is difficult to predict and will bear in mind other factors, such as the dependence on Venezuela's oil,” he said.
Negotiations and attacks
Richard Grenell said that, in addition to the six men who have been released by the Venezuelan government, there are still another six US citizens imprisoned in Venezuela. According to the White House special envoy, if Caracas has evidence that the plans were being carried out, it must investigate and prosecute all cases. He said, however, that the information provided by US intelligence indicates no involvement in terrorist plans.
Nine days after taking office, the US President overturned Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans. The measure guaranteed that Venezuelan immigrants could live and work in the country until October 2026. The Republican's decision is expected to affect more than 600,000 people, who could be deported.
Even though international media treat the return of Venezuelan deportees as a US imposition, Medina says the Venezuelan government has already made an effort to welcome Venezuelans who want to return to the country. In 2023, Maduro launched the Return to the Homeland program, which aims to offer logistical support to nationals who are abroad in a vulnerable situation and wish to return.
To access the program, Venezuelans just need to sign up to receive guidance on how to proceed. The idea is to make air tickets available to them, as well as diplomatic support for their return.
According to Maduro, over 1 million Venezuelans have traveled back to the country in recent years, which reflects not only the government's efforts to welcome migrants, but also the improvement in conditions in the country itself. Medina says that even though a large proportion of Venezuelans living abroad are opponents, this has no significant political impact. However, there will be an economic effort.
“The government has made efforts to bring back Venezuelans who are not Chavistas. Even so, they need to respect the institutions and not engage in destabilization plans. Those who have committed crimes abroad come back and comply with the rules here. One challenge is salaries and the use of resources, public services. It will require greater investment, but it's part of our reality, of coercive measures. The government will have to deal with this situation,” he said.
For Tamaris, there is huge difficulty in resuming negotiations from a “zero agenda,” since relations between the Trump administration and Maduro’s are already starting with an important agenda for the US: the immigration.
“In a zero agenda negotiation, there are no previously established points. However, in this case, there is a point on the table, which is the result of Trump's rhetoric on migrants. Consequently, it's obvious that the U., each time it negotiates with Venezuela, will have a different agenda, and Venezuela will respond according to its national interests. [On the US side] The agenda has already been set, and it is migration and oil,” he said.
For Medina, however, there is a different attitude towards Joe Biden's administration and the very relationship Trump has adopted with partner countries such as Mexico, Canada and the European Union. While threatening to impose higher tariffs on products from these partners, the US is negotiating with Venezuelans.
The decision has even stirred up the country's opposition. If the Venezuelan far-right group had US support before, now its leaders have published a letter criticizing the decision to send Venezuelans back to Venezuela. In a statement, the Unity Platform coalition went so far as to say that it supports Donald Trump's government, but calls for TPS to be maintained for Venezuelans who need to be in the US on a “temporary basis."
Analysts interviewed by Brasil de Fato say this stance by the far right in itself demonstrates a different attitude towards the opposition on the part of the White House. In an attempt to maintain the narrative that he still has international support, the former presidential candidate of Plataforma Unitaria, Edmundo González Urrutia, said he accompanied the meeting between Grenell and Maduro and keeps in touch with the special envoy and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Exchange of messages
While claiming to be building a new relationship with Venezuelans, Trump's administration continues to attack Nicolás Maduro's government. On Tuesday (04), Rubio said that Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba are “enemy regimes of humanity.” The statement was made at a press conference alongside his Costa Rican counterpart, Rodrigo Chaves. The agenda was the US Secretary of State's first international trip, including visits to Panama and El Salvador.
According to him, if it weren't for these three countries, “there wouldn't be a migration crisis” on the continent.
In a statement, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Yván Gil, said that Rubio “can't sleep without thinking about Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela” and that he harbors the “hatred and resentment of a frustrated bureaucrat.” He stressed that the US imposes “chaos and misery” on the world.
“The only enemies of humanity are those who, with their machine of war and abuse, have been sowing chaos and misery in half the world for decades. But Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela have shown that they won't give in, they won't sell out, they won't give up. And that's something the mouthpieces of the losers and the lackeys can't stand because they continually clash with the dignity of the people. You can continue with your sick obsession, Mr Rubio. Keep barking, we'll keep standing here, defeating your fantasies as always,” he said.
Edited by: Dayze Rocha
