Ecuador is preparing to elect a new president next Sunday. In the first electoral round, the current president, right-wing Daniel Noboa, obtained 44.17% of the valid votes. Almost tied was the candidate of Correism, Luisa González, who obtained 44% of the votes.
This is not the first time that both politicians have faced each other in a second electoral round. In 2023, after the resignation of then-president Guillermo Lasso, the country had to go to the polls early. González (33%) and Noboa (21.47%) were the most-voted candidates in the first round. In the second round, Noboa won by a narrow margin: he obtained 51.83% of the votes to González’s 48.17%.
Surprises in the first round of elections
Many were surprised by Noboa’s advancement to the second round. His father, Álvaro Noboa, the richest man in the country, attempted to reach the presidency five times, but the presidential chair always eluded him. Daniel Noboa presented himself in the public arena as a young politician (perhaps somewhat fresh) who sought to break with the dichotomy of Correism-anti-Correaism. This political logic has more or less been the central axis of political discussion since Rafael Correa was president of Ecuador between 2007 and 2017.
On the other hand, the second place achieved by González, the one chosen by the maximum leader of the Citizen Revolution, Correa, was perceived as another defeat of the once reigning and undisputed political movement that, in the 2021 elections, also lost in the second round (that time with Andrés Aráuz as main candidate) to the banker Lasso.
To the surprise of many, Correism decided to repeat its bet on González for the current elections.
Contradictions sharpen between Noboa and Correism
During the first months of Noboa’s administration, there was an unofficial agreement between Noboa and Correism; the latter supported several legislative proposals of the Executive, many of an economic nature.
However, the supposed “unity of governability” did not last long, since their political strategies differed, mainly when Noboa ordered the assault on the Mexican Embassy in Ecuador to arrest the ex-vice president of Correa, Jorge Glas, who was in asylum. This event also provoked the rupture of diplomatic relations between Quito and Mexico.
Today it would seem that the differences between the two political groups are unbridgeable. Constant accusations from both sides about the opposition’s alleged links to criminal groups have defined the election campaign. Noboa claimed that the financiers of González’s campaign were mobsters, while González said that the Noboa family’s companies were behind the export of cocaine from Ecuador to Europe and the United States.
Political difference beneath slurry of accusations
In this way, the security crisis that Ecuador is going through, the most serious in its history, is used by the candidates to discredit their opponent in an electoral campaign that seems to be more a game of defensive accusations than of clear propositions. Undoubtedly, there are clear differences. Noboa proposes a minimal State and suggests several institutional reforms aimed at a country enrolled in the neoliberal logic. González, on the other hand, proposes a greater presence of the State in the affairs of society, although he does not rule out reforms that would help the development of private enterprise.
In this sense of political propaganda, it seems that people will choose whom to vote for by looking more at the opponent than at the candidate of their choice on the ballot, that is to say, that the majority will vote “to save the country” from the other.
Noboa has become the standard bearer of anti-correism at the national level and this has allowed him to maintain fundamental support from a broad political spectrum. Noboa has based his campaign on the claim that if González wins, the dollar will be eliminated from the country (a currency that has been in use since the early 2000s) and has invoked the old spectre of Venezuela to secure additional votes.
González, on the other hand, has based her campaign on Noboa’s administration, which has not been able to reduce the insecurity in the country (Ecuador is the country with more deaths per capita in the continent) and during which poverty and unemployment have increased.
The polls are not conclusive
If someone wanted to know what will happen next Sunday, they would probably not find a conclusive answer in the polls. The Telcodata company reported that, according to its poll, González seems to have the advantage with 50.2%, while Noboa would reach 49.8% of the votes. On its part, the pollster Comunicaliza said that, according to its survey, Noboa is ahead with 50.3% while González would have 49.7%. In other words, according to the polls, there is a technical tie in which, out of almost 10,255,000 voters, only 40,000 votes would separate one candidate from the other.
In addition, it is reported that the number of undecided voters went from 12% to 8%, which suggests that victory is still among those who have not yet decided on their vote. Moreover, between 7 and 8% of those interviewed in Quito and Guayaquil, the largest cities in the country, said that they could change their vote.
Legislative challenges loom
The truth is that whoever wins will immediately have almost half of the country against them. Therefore, the future president will have to gain greater legitimacy and governability in a very complicated environment.
The composition of the National Assembly, due to the high polarization of the country, is practically bipartisan, which will turn it into the main opposition entity to resist the government program of the Executive. Undoubtedly, this will hinder the new president’s plans. In addition, he or she will have to face a deeply divided public opinion and civil society.
Therefore, many predict, if González wins, she will have to make agreements with the left (with whom she has already signed an agreement), but also with the center-right to govern and carry out certain campaign proposals. On his part, Noboa could appeal to political openness. However, if he governs as he has done so far, it will likely be in a top-down manner, pushing the limits of the law to advance his agenda. In fact, many currently accuse him of violating the law by not resigning his position to campaign, while distributing, through his government, bonuses in an attempt to secure some votes.
What will happen on Sunday is largely unknown. If we trust the polls (which may also be risky), rarely in the history of the country has there been such a small difference between both candidates in the runoff. If the April 13 elections were a casino, the most experienced would surely recommend against betting large sums of money.
Original article published in Peoples Dispatch.
