Polls predicted that Ecuador’s presidential run-off on April 13 would be extremely tight, with results expected to come in very late. Voters faced a choice between Daniel Noboa, the current right-wing president of the country, or Luisa González, the progressive candidate of Correism. Some reports went so far as to specify that the difference in votes between the winner and the runner-up would fall between 100,000 and 40,000 votes, in a population of more than 10 million voters.
Despite this, the initial results have been one of the greatest surprises in the country’s recent electoral history. According to the National Electoral Council (CNE), at 12:55 pm, with 97.68% of the valid votes:
- Daniel Noboa (National Democratic Action, ADN): 55.63%
- 5,763,431 votes
- Luisa González (Citizen Revolution, RC): 44.37%
- 4,595,969 votes
This would mean that the margin between them is 1,167,462 votes – nearly 11% of the vote total – and could continue to grow as counting is finalized.
After learning the results, Noboa, from his home in Olon, told the press: “This victory has been historic. A victory of more than 10 points of more than 1 million votes where there is no doubt as to who the winner is.”
In the first round on February 9, Noboa obtained 44.17% of the valid votes, that is, some 4,527,606 votes, while González technically tied with the president by obtaining 4,510,860 (more or less 17,000 votes difference). According to the almost complete data of the April 13 elections, Noboa would have had a growth of almost 26.7%, while González would have barely increased 1.3% of the votes she obtained in the first round despite the alliance she made with the Indigenous Movement, which in the first round obtained 5.25% of the vote.
Why such a large margin?
There are various hypotheses about the dramatic surge of the neoliberal right’s candidacy, which came at the direct expense of González’s campaign. Some argue that many of González’s votes in the first round went to Noboa’s candidacy, despite assumptions that such a shift in people’s vote between rounds was unlikely. However, the truth is that several surveys affirmed, two days before the elections, that between 8 and 9% of the voters could reconsider who to vote for.
Other analysts argue that Noboa was able to obtain more votes due to the type of campaign he ran during the second round. He did not resign from office, as some lawyers claim he should have done according to electoral law (one cannot be a candidate and president at the same time), and he used the apparatus of the State to gain support, such as the distribution of thousands of express vouchers to people with scarce resources (something that has not been sanctioned, raising concerns of an unfair campaign in favor of the President).
Noboa, in addition, sent his Secretaries to carry out activities of management and attention to the most humble sectors throughout the country, rapidly increasing his popularity in areas where previous governments (and his own government) had been absent.
However, a different explanation for this enormous surprise is being raised by the candidacy of González.
The RC publicly denounces electoral fraud and asks for a recount
After the initial results, one of the leaders of the RC and former presidential candidate, Andres Arauz, denounced in his X account that several voting minutes, which must necessarily be uploaded to the CNE’s computer system, did not have the signatures of the corresponding polling station members.
This post set the tone for what the RC would argue in the following hours. On the night of April 13, candidate Luisa González said before her followers and supporters: “The RC has always recognized a defeat when polls and statistics have shown it. Today we do not recognize the results presented by the NEC… In 11 polls, in 11 statistical investigations, even in that of the government itself, they announced that we won. In one exit poll, they gave us the victory. None of the two [exit polls conducted] showed such a big difference as seen according to the CNE.”
From this perspective, González denounced that the democratic situation of the country was seriously compromised due to the unchecked privileges Noboa used to carry out his electoral campaign without facing any formal sanctions. She went so far as to call it electoral fraud “I denounce before my people, before the media and before the world that Ecuador is experiencing a dictatorship, and that we are facing the worst and most grotesque fraud in the history of the Republic of Ecuador.”
Former President Rafael Correa wrote in his X account “Ecuadorian people: You know that, unlike our adversaries, we have always accepted the opponent’s victory when it has been clean. This time it is NOT. Statistically, the result is IMPOSSIBLE. Luisa would get practically the same votes as in the first round. They made a mega fraud, but they made a mistake: they overdid it.”
Discrepancies in RC
Many are still waiting for evidence of the alleged fraud denounced by the top leaders of the CR, but up to this moment, such evidence has not been produced. Perhaps that is why there is an internal division in the RC, between those who affirm that there was fraud and those who accept the results. For example, the mayors of the two main cities of the country, members of the RC, have encouraged González to accept the results.
The Mayor of Quito, the capital of the country, Pabel Muñoz, wrote “I wish President Daniel Noboa the best for the good of our country. I consider necessary a change of attitude in the management of his government… For the voters and militants of the Citizen Revolution, every word of thanks falls short, they are the engine of our political work. My colleague Luisa González brilliantly represents all the attributes of the Ecuadorian woman: intelligent, fighter, brave, passionate for her people… Finally, a fully democratic behavior demands, at this moment, two things: 1. to recognize the results announced yesterday by the CNE and 2: that those same electoral authorities process all the inconsistencies that are presented.”
For his part, Aquiles Álvarez, Mayor of Guayaquil, said: “If the people elected, we have to respect it. Whether we like it or not, the people are elected democratically, and we must be honest in recognizing it. The worst thing is to be a sore loser. God willing, Ecuador will do well for the good of all of us. To the president, today reelected, beyond our immense differences that are public, I sincerely wish him the best.”
However, progressive organizations in the region took a much stronger stance following the initial election results.
Alba and IPA denounce “authoritarian coup”
The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Alba) – a platform that brings together hundreds of organizations from 25 countries in the region – and the International Peoples’ Assembly (IPA), a global network of peoples organizations from all five continents, issued a joint statement on April 14 denouncing the election results in Ecuador.
The statement denounces a pattern of militarization and political repression throughout Noboa’s administration, warning that, “The declaration of a state of siege on the eve of the elections is not a security measure, but a desperate maneuver to perpetuate fear and influence the popular will”.
Criticizing Noboa’s government for serving foreign interests – particularly those of the United States – the organizations argue that Noboa’s political project betrays the national interest and is instead “handing over the country’s sovereignty to imperialism.”
“We firmly denounce the new authoritarian coup imposed on the Ecuadorian people by Daniel Noboa,” the statement says.
What will happen now?
González and the RC have requested the opening of the ballot boxes and asked for a total recount of votes. That the CNE, which has shown a certain affinity to the Noboa government, accepts González’s request without irrefutable evidence is unlikely. The RC will have to demonstrate incontestable evidence for the electoral body to comply with its wish.
On his part, Noboa could feel certain that the results will be maintained according to the way in which the loyalties of the different State organisms are arranged. He has already announced that he will begin to outline a legislative agenda that could include a change in the constitution that will allow him the desired deepening of a neoliberal project. To do so, he will have to secure a majority in the National Assembly and keep other sectors of the State under his sphere of influence.
Original article published in Peoples Dispatch.
