Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) remains ahead of all other potential candidates in both the first and second rounds of the 2026 presidential election, according to a poll released this Thursday (9) by Quaest, one of Brazil’s main opinion research institutes. Lula has led all polls since August.
In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula is shown leading by 9 points over centrist Ciro Gomes, 10 over former president Jair Bolsonaro, 12 over former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, 13 over Paraná governor Ratinho Júnior, 15 over Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema, Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado and congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, and by 23 points over Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite.
Compared to September’s survey, Lula widened his lead over right-wing São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, from 8 to 12 points. His advantage against Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro, and Eduardo Bolsonaro remained within the margin of error, while his lead over Ciro, Ratinho Jr., Zema, and Leite increased. The candidate with the highest rejection rate was Eduardo Bolsonaro, who is currently in the United States and risks losing his congressional seat for missing too many sessions.
The survey interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and older between October 2 and 5. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.
Lula leads first-round scenarios
In one of the first-round simulations, Lula leads with 35% of voting intentions, followed by Jair Bolsonaro with 26%. Bolsonaro, however, is legally barred from running: Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) declared him ineligible until 2030 for abuse of political and economic power. He was also sentenced by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to 27 years and 3 months in prison for attempting a coup d’état in 2022.
In that same scenario, Ratinho Júnior (PSD) appears in third with 10%, while Ciro Gomes (PDT) follows with 9%. Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) register 3% each. Four percent of voters were undecided, while 10% declared they would cast blank or null votes, or abstain.
In a direct matchup against Michelle Bolsonaro, Lula leads with 36% against 21% for the former first lady. Ciro Gomes and Ratinho Júnior are tied in third, each with 10%.
When the opponent is São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Lula expands his margin, winning 39% against 18% for Tarcísio and 12% for Ciro Gomes. In a scenario against congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, Lula leads with 35%, followed by Eduardo with 15%. Ratinho Júnior and Ciro Gomes come next, with 12% and 11%, respectively.
