Analysis

Damage caused to the Israeli regime is irreversible, I believe we are seeing the beginning of its end, says Iranian analyst

Mohammad Marandi believes that 'Iran's impressive success in recent weeks is a great victory for humanity'

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Em Tel Aviv, cidade mais atingida por contra-ataques do Irã, outdoor agradece Trump por apoiar a guerra | Crédito: JACK GUEZ / AFP

Never before in history has a country managed to cause as much damage to US bases around the world, or cause as much destruction in the territory that Israel illegally occupies in Palestine, as Iran has in the last 13 days.

According to presenter and former British MP George Galloway, some of his anonymous sources in Tel Aviv have reported that parts of the city now resemble Gaza, which has been cruelly bombed by the Zionist regime. Nearing two weeks of resistance, Iran appears to be calling the shots in the war at this point and may dictate the terms of the end of the conflict.

In recent days, according to some Western media outlets, the Iranian government has been approached twice by Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to sound out possible negotiations. Tehran has reportedly refused dialogue. After being betrayed twice in negotiations with the US – in June 2025 and March 2026 – the Iranian government sees no point in negotiating now.

Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran’s Supreme Security Council, responding to a post by Donald Trump, who said that the US should win the war soon, said that “starting a war is easy, but ending it cannot be achieved with a few tweets. We will not leave them alone until they accept their mistake and pay for it.”

Persian officials have stated that they have barely begun to deploy their most sophisticated missiles, while US and Israeli defences are already showing signs of exhaustion. Also according to Western media, anti-missile alarms in Tel Aviv, for example, have been sounding only seconds before missiles hit the country’s capital, instead of the traditional 10 minutes. Meanwhile, the newly elected supreme leader, Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei, made his first official statement to the Iranian people and made clear the intention of the Islamic revolutionary government: “In any case, we will obtain reparations from the enemy.

If he refuses, we will take from his assets the amount we deem appropriate; and if that is not possible either, we will destroy his assets in the same proportion.” The Ayatollah also issued a warning to Arab countries in the region, calling on them to close US bases on their territories, or they will continue to be attacked.

At this point, despite the countless bombings suffered on their territory and more than 1,200 people killed, the self-confidence of the Iranian leadership is impressive, leading one to believe that they have complete control over the situation and are clear about their strategy. The same cannot be said of the leaders in Washington, who have often issued contradictory messages in recent days, while leaks in the US media report numerous changes in their strategy since the beginning of the war.

BdF spoke with one of the best-known Iranian intellectuals outside his country, Mohammad Marandi, professor of literature and specialist in geopolitics at the University of Tehran. He was one of the Iranian government’s advisors in the JCPOA negotiations (2015-2018), which sought to regulate Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the easing of sanctions against the West Asian country.

Marandi believes that “Iran’s impressive success in recent weeks is a great victory for humanity. And it is great news for the global majority, because it will give them power in the face of the empire. This will create greater self-confidence among nations.”

Check out the full interview below:

BdF: On the second day of the war, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a bombing of the complex where he lived and worked. Iranian officials said Khamenei refused to hide in a shelter, insisting on remaining in the same conditions as the rest of the population. What explains this attitude on the part of the leader of a nation at war? What are the consequences of this loss for the Islamic revolution?

Mohammad Marandi: Ayatollah Khamenei was killed at the very beginning of this illegal attack. He was in his office, working, and his office is right next to his residence. He refused to leave because he told people that many Iranians, due to sanctions, are struggling and have nowhere to go. As long as they have nowhere to go, I will not leave. He believed that his office and residence were prime targets. That if war broke out again, this would be the first place they would attack. But he refused to leave, and his family refused to leave him. And so, his heroism resonates throughout Iran. He has always been a very popular figure. He was a warrior for social justice. He supported anti-imperialist movements around the world and, of course, in Palestine. He was highly educated, very cultured, deeply knowledgeable about literature and fluent in four languages. But this sacrifice he made had a huge impact on Iranian society and strengthened the resistance and resilience of the Iranian people. It united them even more than before.

Trump was elected on the promise of “No more wars” – one of MAGA’s platforms – and public opinion polls in the US show that less than 30% of the population supports the war against Iran. A few days ago, Tucker Carlson, one of MAGA’s leaders and a Trump supporter, said that the US and Israeli attacks are “evil and disgusting”. On the other hand, this war is causing energy prices (oil and natural gas) to skyrocket, which is likely to increase inflation in the US (and in much of the world) and the cost of living for the population. Trump’s popularity is already very low, and this context increases his chances of defeat in the midterm elections in November. He himself recently stated that if he loses control of both houses, he could face impeachment. Faced with such great political risks, what explains the White House’s decision to provoke this war? How do you interpret Trump’s speech last Monday (9), stating that his war mission is almost complete?

I think the reason he said the mission is almost complete and that they have won the war, despite the fact that they are obviously losing – the United States is losing badly in this war – is because he is looking for a way out. But Iran will not give him a way out so easily. There are conditions that will have to be met. Trump took office, as you correctly pointed out, with a platform declaring that there would be no more wars. But he is deeply under the influence of the Zionists. Now, whether it’s because they’re blackmailing him and have photos or footage of him in Epstein’s files, or because he’s surrounded by Zionists — his son-in-law is a Zionist, his closest friends are Zionists, his entire team is Zionist — they put Israel first, not the United States. Or it could be a combination of all these things. That they have compromising information on him, but also that he is surrounded by these people. But either way, the reason the war happened is because it is in the interest of Zionism. It is in the interest of the Epstein class, not in the interest of the American people. It is against the interests of the American people. It is against the interests of the world. The world is paying a price now, an economic price, because the Zionists want war.

In the weeks leading up to the war, several political and military analysts claimed that China had sent sophisticated intelligence equipment – such as the Ocean 1 ship and radars capable of detecting stealth aircraft. There are also rumours that Russia is doing something similar. Beijing and Moscow have issued statements supporting Iranian sovereignty and harshly criticising the criminal attacks by the US and Israel. At the same time, China has recommended caution in Iran’s counteroffensive in countries in the region (e.g., attacks on oil and gas refineries and factories in Saudi Arabia and Qatar). There are also rumours that Russia is offering to mediate negotiations between Tehran and its neighbours, and Putin spoke with Trump by telephone on Monday (9). Do you agree with these analyses? How do you assess the possible developments in Iran’s relations with two of its most strategic partners?

Iran’s capabilities are mainly indigenous. The missiles, the drones, the underground bases, the underground factories that produce more missiles and drones. Indigenous technology is behind all of this. Cutting-edge technology. It is a sign of Iranian brilliance that we have created such an effective military capability against the world superpower and the coalition working for it. Because the entire West is supporting the genocidal Zionist regime and the Trump regime in this war. And the same goes for the regional representatives, the Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf, Erdogan in Turkey, all of them are in the American camp. So I think it’s quite impressive that Iran is so successful. It’s extraordinary. But Iran’s relationship with Russia and China is very good. They have grown closer over the years. After the 12-day war, they grew even closer. And obviously, Russia, China and Iran, none of us want the global economy to collapse. So they are looking for a way out of this crisis. Iran has never stopped caring. Iran does not want this war. Iran wants everyone to be able to continue with their business and wants to be able to continue with its own business. But for that to happen, certain conditions have to be met. There has to be reparations for all the killings and destruction. Iran’s rights and sovereignty must be recognised. There must be real guarantees that the United States can never do this again. Otherwise, a ceasefire now would basically mean that the Americans would attack us again in a few months. Just as we saw eight or nine months ago.

Despite the enormous power of the US and Israeli armed forces, many military analysts claim that the US war industry currently has a relatively low capacity to replenish its weapons stocks in order to meet its military challenges. On the other hand, analysts have also stated that, in these early days of the war, Iran has mainly used its stocks of old drones and missiles to wear down the enemy’s defences, and that it is now beginning to use its more sophisticated missiles. Do you agree with this analysis? What can we expect from Iranian resistance in the coming days?

Yes, this analysis is correct. The Iranians have been using all their old stockpiles first. And even these old weapons have caused devastating damage. Not only have they depleted much of the American and Israeli air defences, but many of them have also managed to get through. And so, gradually, the Iranians are also using newer technologies. They are still using the older missiles and drones, but they are also combining them with newer technologies. But the latest technologies are not yet being used. Therefore, Iran has the capacity to continue this war until the US midterm elections [November] and beyond. This has shocked the Americans. And what is also important is the weakness of the American and Israeli secret services. Because they estimated that Iran’s missiles were limited, but now we see that Iran is firing drones and missiles non-stop. So the Mossad and the CIA are obviously very, very overrated.

Since the end of the Cold War (1991), the US has been involved in numerous wars, but always with much weaker military opponents, such as Iraq (1991), the former Yugoslavia (1999), Iraq (2003), Afghanistan (2003), Libya (2010), Syria (since 2014), among others. Iran appears to be the first adversary capable of responding adequately to attacks by the US – and Israel, simultaneously. Regardless of the final outcome of this war, Iran has already achieved historic feats, such as attacking and virtually destroying nearly 20 American bases in West Asia, including sophisticated radars – which cost many billions of dollars – and inflicting unprecedented damage on Israel. In your opinion, what are the possible historical consequences of such Iranian achievements? Does Iran intend to expel the US from the region forever?

Yes, Iran wants to ensure that in the future, the United States can no longer impose its hegemony on this region and that it behaves like a normal country. Iran’s impressive success in recent weeks is a great victory for humanity. And it is great news for the global majority because it will empower them in the face of the empire. It will create greater self-confidence among nations. Iran’s resilience, the resilience of the Iranian people, is unique. And they were able to do what everyone thought was impossible. Everyone thought Iran would collapse. We never thought that. But outside Iran, everyone thought it would be a piece of cake for the United States. So Iran is doing humanity a great service, and we hope that the world will be able to free itself from the yoke of this evil empire.

For decades, Iran has been implementing a strategic plan — based on the concept of a “resistance economy” — to achieve technological excellence in certain sectors, such as nuclear energy, nanotechnology, AI, medicine, aerospace and missiles. To begin with, the country has ensured the massification of higher education, which jumped from 175,000 students in 1979 (the year of the revolution) to 4.8 million in 2015. Iran also stands out today as one of the countries that trains the most engineers in the world (ranging from 5th to 7th place, depending on the year). Is it this strategy — which, incidentally, resembles the Chinese model — that explains Iran’s resilience in this war, as well as its ability to strike a blow against the neocolonial presence of the US in the region? How was this strategy debated and developed in the country? What was the role of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in this strategy?

Ayatollah Khamenei was the key figure who promoted the resistance economy. In fact, this expression was something he began to use publicly. And there was a lot of resistance to this concept in different administrations. If they had listened to him, we would be in an even better position today. But the Iranians chose to develop their own capabilities, whether civilian or military, they chose an independent path in foreign policy, they chose a path of independence in agriculture, industry and high-tech fields. And, of course, all this happened under maximum pressure sanctions, multiple wars and terrorism. We saw just a few months ago how Mossad and the United States killed hundreds of police officers and volunteers on the streets of different cities, created mass chaos and destroyed so many public services. They are constantly trying to undermine the country, to create destruction. We saw the war they waged eight or nine months ago. For 47 years, they have been trying to undermine Iran. However, under these maximum pressure sanctions, under war and despite wars, terrorism and anti-Iranian propaganda spread around the world through their powerful media, Iran has survived and prospered and is now humiliating the United States on the battlefield.

According to various Western and regional media outlets, Israel has imposed a strict censorship regime on images of the damage caused by Iranian attacks in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, both for television channels and for mobile phone videos recorded by ordinary citizens. On the other hand, there are rumours on social media of a high number of casualties in Israel and the US, including military personnel, intelligence agents (CIA and Mossad) and civilians. What public data does the Iranian government have on enemy casualties at this time? Despite the censorship, recent images of an unprecedented attack on Tel Aviv have circulated around the world. There are rumours that Netanyahu’s brother has died and that former minister and far-right leader Ben-Gvir is seriously injured. Does the Iranian government confirm this information?

What can be said is that the devastation throughout occupied Palestine is enormous. And the very fact that there is unprecedented censorship and that the West agrees with it shows that things are very bad. But it also shows that freedom of information is an absurdity in the West. They only want freedom of information when it serves their interests. But when it goes against their interests, not only can the Israeli regime impose censorship – or total censorship – but the entire West will cooperate with it. So I think this further exposes the nature of the Western media, Western governments and Western institutions. But the damage done to the Israeli regime is irreversible. In the future, no one will invest in Israel because they know it will always be vulnerable. I believe we are seeing the beginning of the end of the Israeli regime. The world hates it because of the genocide in Gaza, the genocidal attacks in Lebanon and the endless wars. But the regime has also shown itself to be vulnerable, extremely vulnerable. And the same applies to all American representatives in the Persian Gulf, the Saudis, the Emirates, the Kuwaitis, the Bahrainis, the government of Oman, all of them basically allowed themselves to be tools of the United States. They allowed American bases to be used against Iran. And in the future, they will never again have the status they had two weeks ago, before the war.

The Assembly of Experts announced this week (8) the election of Iran’s new supreme leader, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. How is the Assembly of Experts chosen? What were the criteria for the election of the new leader, Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei? What are the personal and political characteristics that stand out in the new leader? What can we expect from his leadership?

The members of the Assembly of Experts are all high-level jurists. They are elected every eight years. They decide who becomes leader. They can choose the leader and they can remove him, according to the Constitution. That is their role. They supervise what the leader does. They chose Ayatollah Mujtab al-Khamenei, who is a high-level academic in seminaries. He is a jurist. He has been teaching high-level researchers and students for 20 years. But he has also been in the leader’s office all these years. So he is highly educated, he is a senior academic, but he is also very familiar with what goes on in Iranian foreign policy, military affairs, economics and so on. He has always been very careful that none of his children have any business interests. Not that he was against the private sector, but he was opposed to any member of his immediate family having any involvement with the private sector. Therefore, all his sons, daughters, daughters-in-law and sons-in-law are all academics or teachers. Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei also has a very simple lifestyle, like his father. And he is very familiar with the workings of the state. I believe he is an advocate, like his father, for the oppressed. That is why Iran has been helping countries such as Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua under sanctions, or the resistance in southern Africa and, of course, the people of Palestine and other peoples oppressed by the empire. Therefore, with regard to Iran’s foreign policy in general, I am confident that we will see continuity in our political worldview.

Furthermore, Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei, the new leader, has never been a public figure. He has never appeared on television. He has never been seen on television. Neither have any of Ayatollah Khamenei’s sons. So he was just a scholar. He was a scholar, but he also worked and helped his father in his office.

Edited by: Lucas Estanislau
Read in: Português

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